Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.8% vs Bergeron 56.2% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 71.1%
Defensive zone
Kelly 70.2%
Neutral zone
Kelly 72.0%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 71.2%
71.2%
28.8%
Kelly
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kelly
Bergeron
Last 8: Kelly 3-5 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
2
Kelly
Bergeron
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
1
Kelly
Bergeron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
2
Kelly
Bergeron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (723)
57.3% (1,041)
-5.4%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
60.4% (149)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (166)
51.3% (234)
-4.9%
On power play, Bergeron has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Kelly is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Kelly shoots left. Bergeron is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (979).
Home / Away
Kelly
Bergeron
Home
53.8% (442)
59.8% (682)
Away
48.1% (474)
53.8% (757)
By Period
Kelly
Bergeron
P1
50.2%
58.2%
P2
47.6%
58.1%
P3
54.5%
54.5%
OT
85.7%
42.1%
Final 5 min
52.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.9%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2011 | 2 | 19:12 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 11, 2011 | 2 | 03:23 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 3 | 14:24 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 15:59 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |