Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bergeron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Bergeron 60.5% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 62.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 93.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 80.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 87.2%
87.2%
12.8%
Sturm
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Sturm
Bergeron
Last 5: Sturm 0-5 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
1
Sturm
Bergeron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
4
Sturm
Bergeron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
62.5% (1,109)
-6.4%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
62.2% (352)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
53.5% (245)
-2.4%
On even strength, Bergeron has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Sturm shoots left. Bergeron is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,178).
Home / Away
Sturm
Bergeron
Home
55.6% (412)
61.9% (917)
Away
56.0% (468)
60.2% (789)
By Period
Sturm
Bergeron
P1
59.6%
60.8%
P2
52.0%
60.3%
P3
55.5%
63.0%
OT
60.0%
51.5%
Final 5 min
56.8%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
61.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 1 | 11:13 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:36 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |