Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bergeron on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Bergeron 59.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Bergeron leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 72.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 93.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 81.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Sturm
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
14
(20 meetings)
6
14
Sturm
Bergeron
Last 10: Sturm 2-8 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
8
Sturm
Bergeron
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
Sturm
Bergeron
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Bergeron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
60.1% (13,938)
-3.0%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
60.8% (3,213)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
53.0% (2,776)
-2.0%
On even strength, Bergeron has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Bergeron is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (13,273).
Home / Away
Sturm
Bergeron
Home
57.1% (1,614)
61.2% (10,028)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
57.3% (9,930)
By Period
Sturm
Bergeron
P1
56.5%
59.3%
P2
54.9%
60.0%
P3
57.4%
58.6%
OT
60.6%
57.9%
Final 5 min
56.9%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 1 | 11:13 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:36 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 19:55 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 19:02 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 09:29 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 12:26 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 03:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 05:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 2 | 19:17 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |