Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bergeron wins 63.4% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bergeron 60.5% vs Stastny 56.3% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 64.6%
Defensive zone
Bergeron 58.3%
Neutral zone
Bergeron 53.2%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Bergeron
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Bergeron
Stastny
Last 6: Bergeron 3-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
2
Bergeron
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
2
1
Bergeron
Stastny
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bergeron
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (1,109)
57.5% (412)
+5.0%
Power Play
62.2% (352)
60.0% (65)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (245)
44.4% (9)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, Bergeron has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Bergeron is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,178).
Bergeron shoots right. Stastny is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Home / Away
Bergeron
Stastny
Home
61.9% (917)
58.3% (276)
Away
60.2% (789)
56.7% (210)
By Period
Bergeron
Stastny
P1
60.8%
63.7%
P2
60.3%
57.3%
P3
63.0%
50.4%
Final 5 min
58.7%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
61.1%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2023 | 3 | 00:43 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 1 | 05:02 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 07:53 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 08:55 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |