Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bergeron wins 63.4% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bergeron 60.5% vs McLeod 48.4% (+12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bergeron 51.4%
Defensive zone
McLeod 52.6%
Neutral zone
McLeod 52.4%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Bergeron
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bergeron
McLeod
Last 5: Bergeron 2-3 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
3
Bergeron
McLeod
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bergeron
1
0
Bergeron
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bergeron
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (1,109)
49.0% (500)
+13.5%
Power Play
62.2% (352)
43.8% (48)
+18.4%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (245)
44.0% (50)
+9.5%
On power play, Bergeron has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Bergeron is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,178).
Bergeron shoots right. McLeod is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (228).
Home / Away
Bergeron
McLeod
Home
61.9% (917)
50.9% (291)
Away
60.2% (789)
45.6% (307)
By Period
Bergeron
McLeod
P1
60.8%
44.3%
P2
60.3%
52.4%
P3
63.0%
47.8%
OT
51.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
61.1%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:51 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 02:36 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:57 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 14:40 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:06 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |