Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lizotte wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.0% vs Brown 51.9% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lizotte 72.1%
Defensive zone
Brown 61.2%
Neutral zone
Lizotte 53.7%
Result
Patrick Brown favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Lizotte
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lizotte
Brown
Last 5: Lizotte 1-4 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
2
Lizotte
Brown
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brown
1
2
Lizotte
Brown
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (707)
52.8% (284)
-0.3%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
75.0% (4)
-28.8%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
49.0% (51)
-7.6%
On power play, Brown has a +28.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Lizotte is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Lizotte shoots left. Brown is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Brown
Home
51.4% (383)
53.5% (144)
Away
50.9% (424)
51.8% (195)
By Period
Lizotte
Brown
P1
48.8%
49.0%
P2
51.0%
48.7%
P3
53.5%
58.6%
Final 5 min
48.3%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.2%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:55 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 04:47 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 15:43 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 12:15 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |