Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Brown wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Holmberg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 51.9% vs Holmberg 44.8% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Holmberg 73.9%
Defensive zone
Brown 71.2%
Neutral zone
Holmberg 51.1%
Result
Pontus Holmberg favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Brown
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Brown
Holmberg
Last 6: Brown 3-3 Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brown
2
1
Brown
Holmberg
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
2
Brown
Holmberg
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brown
1
0
Brown
Holmberg
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (284)
42.5% (207)
+10.3%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
40.0% (10)
+35.0%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (51)
50.0% (2)
-1.0%
On power play, Brown has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Brown is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Brown shoots right. Holmberg is 37.8% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Home / Away
Brown
Holmberg
Home
53.5% (144)
40.9% (127)
Away
51.8% (195)
44.6% (92)
By Period
Brown
Holmberg
P1
49.0%
47.8%
P2
48.7%
43.8%
P3
58.6%
37.2%
Final 5 min
55.4%
34.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
52.5%
Holmberg
40.0%▼
46.5%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:13 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 1 | 17:11 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 1 | 02:29 | Defensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 13:47 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |