Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Elias on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Elias 42.0% (+15.2%)
H2H factor
Elias leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Elias 78.7%
Defensive zone
Elias 77.0%
Neutral zone
Elias 82.2%
Result
Patrik Elias favored at 79.6%
20.4%
79.6%
Pavelski
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Pavelski
Elias
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Elias
0
3
Pavelski
Elias
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Elias
1
2
Pavelski
Elias
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Elias
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
40.2% (562)
+15.5%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
49.3% (71)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
34.1% (44)
+17.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Elias is 37.3% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Elias
Home
59.2% (622)
39.9% (318)
Away
52.6% (584)
41.5% (359)
By Period
Pavelski
Elias
P1
54.1%
42.0%
P2
56.4%
38.6%
P3
56.4%
41.1%
OT
65.6%
45.2%
Final 5 min
54.8%
40.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 14:33 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 09:09 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 02:44 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 1 | 11:24 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 1 | 08:18 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 23, 2013 | 1 | 04:25 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |