Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 49.7% vs Elias 42.0% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 66.9%
Defensive zone
Bailey 84.0%
Neutral zone
Bailey 64.6%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Bailey
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Bailey
Elias
Last 8: Bailey 5-3 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Elias
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
1
Bailey
Elias
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
1
Bailey
Elias
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (170)
40.2% (562)
+8.6%
Power Play
56.4% (39)
49.3% (71)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
34.1% (44)
+8.0%
On even strength, Bailey has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Bailey is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (141).
Bailey shoots left. Elias is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (436).
Home / Away
Bailey
Elias
Home
51.3% (156)
39.9% (318)
Away
45.8% (72)
41.5% (359)
By Period
Bailey
Elias
P1
50.0%
42.0%
P2
45.6%
38.6%
P3
52.9%
41.1%
OT
33.3%
45.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
40.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
49.6%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2014 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 14:54 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 1 | 17:40 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 1 | 06:08 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |