Scouting Report
Riley Nash holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Elias on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Elias wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Elias 42.7% vs Nash 48.5% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nash 73.1%
Defensive zone
Nash 91.6%
Neutral zone
Nash 89.5%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 89.9%
10.1%
89.9%
Elias
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Elias
Nash
Last 9: Elias 8-1 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Elias
2
0
Elias
Nash
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Elias
6
1
Elias
Nash
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Elias
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (2,591)
48.7% (4,621)
-6.4%
Power Play
48.4% (405)
51.0% (249)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
36.0% (367)
44.9% (550)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Nash has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Elias is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,179).
Elias shoots left. Nash is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,747).
Home / Away
Elias
Nash
Home
43.2% (1,683)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
41.7% (1,725)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
Elias
Nash
P1
41.1%
49.0%
P2
43.1%
47.9%
P3
43.0%
48.0%
OT
43.2%
68.4%
Final 5 min
40.3%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
42.5%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2015 | 1 | 04:35 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 3 | 01:36 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 2 | 01:35 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 1 | 15:18 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 1 | 00:58 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 2 | 01:50 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 1 | 11:17 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |