Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 57.8% vs Gaustad 56.7% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 59.6%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 83.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 66.4%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 75.0%
25.0%
75.0%
Pavelski
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pavelski
Gaustad
Last 5: Pavelski 1-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Gaustad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
4
Pavelski
Gaustad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (569)
57.8% (854)
+0.0%
Power Play
60.2% (161)
56.0% (25)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (121)
55.1% (263)
+4.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Pavelski is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (681).
Pavelski shoots right. Gaustad is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gaustad
Home
61.0% (403)
61.3% (633)
Away
56.6% (461)
52.4% (517)
By Period
Pavelski
Gaustad
P1
62.9%
57.9%
P2
56.6%
55.3%
P3
57.1%
58.3%
OT
57.9%
64.3%
Final 5 min
53.6%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 00:26 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 1 | 07:35 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |