Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Duchene wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.2% vs Gaustad 57.9% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 19-9 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 62.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 62.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Duchene
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
19
(28 meetings)
9
19
Duchene
Gaustad
Last 10: Duchene 2-8 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Duchene
Gaustad
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
4
8
Duchene
Gaustad
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
8
Duchene
Gaustad
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (706)
59.8% (353)
-3.0%
Power Play
56.1% (57)
66.7% (15)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (130)
58.0% (81)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Duchene shoots left. Gaustad is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Duchene
Gaustad
Home
56.6% (488)
62.1% (195)
Away
52.3% (405)
57.9% (254)
By Period
Duchene
Gaustad
P1
52.0%
59.4%
P2
53.7%
58.1%
P3
58.5%
61.3%
OT
46.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 15:44 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 13:08 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 08:23 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 2 | 17:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 2 | 08:49 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 2 | 04:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 18:06 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 17:57 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 17:49 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 18:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 10:28 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 06:42 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 03:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 01:22 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |