Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 48.5% vs Gaustad 55.9% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 64.5%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 90.5%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 73.8%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 64.2%
35.8%
64.2%
Backlund
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Backlund
Gaustad
Last 9: Backlund 6-3 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
0
Backlund
Gaustad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
3
Backlund
Gaustad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Gaustad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (711)
57.7% (821)
-7.6%
Power Play
43.2% (81)
56.3% (16)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
38.6% (83)
52.3% (260)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Backlund is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (515).
Backlund shoots left. Gaustad is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Home / Away
Backlund
Gaustad
Home
51.0% (396)
58.9% (577)
Away
46.1% (479)
53.7% (520)
By Period
Backlund
Gaustad
P1
43.9%
53.1%
P2
51.5%
57.9%
P3
51.0%
57.8%
OT
12.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.3%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 05:47 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 07:53 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 08:55 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 04:49 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |