Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaustad wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 54.7% vs Nash 49.6% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nash 76.4%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 92.8%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 71.8%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Gaustad
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Gaustad
Nash
Last 5: Gaustad 4-1 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
3
0
Gaustad
Nash
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Gaustad
Nash
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (603)
50.7% (341)
+5.5%
Power Play
71.4% (21)
58.3% (24)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (148)
24.0% (25)
+25.3%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Gaustad is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Gaustad shoots left. Nash is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Nash
Home
55.5% (366)
50.0% (200)
Away
55.2% (406)
48.9% (190)
By Period
Gaustad
Nash
P1
55.0%
47.1%
P2
56.9%
60.6%
P3
53.7%
38.1%
OT
62.5%
71.4%
Final 5 min
55.1%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2016 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 3 | 08:44 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 11:00 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |