Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaustad wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 54.7% vs Kesler 58.0% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 69.9%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 88.2%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 66.0%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Gaustad
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Gaustad
Kesler
Last 6: Gaustad 1-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
Gaustad
Kesler
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gaustad
Kesler
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Gaustad
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (603)
58.6% (1,138)
-2.4%
Power Play
71.4% (21)
64.5% (186)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (148)
55.0% (351)
-5.7%
On power play, Gaustad has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Gaustad is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Gaustad shoots left. Kesler is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,168).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Kesler
Home
55.5% (366)
61.0% (859)
Away
55.2% (406)
55.9% (816)
By Period
Gaustad
Kesler
P1
55.0%
59.1%
P2
56.9%
56.5%
P3
53.7%
60.5%
OT
62.5%
44.4%
Final 5 min
55.1%
61.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 3 | 12:36 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |