Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 16 meetings). Gaustad wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Kesler 55.9% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 25-15 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 83.1%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 62.6%
Neutral zone
Kesler 58.3%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Gaustad
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
25
(40 meetings)
15
25
Gaustad
Kesler
Last 10: Gaustad 2-8 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
15
Gaustad
Kesler
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
9
2
Gaustad
Kesler
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
5
8
Gaustad
Kesler
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
56.4% (8,095)
+1.8%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
60.7% (1,437)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
50.5% (1,908)
+4.3%
On power play, Gaustad has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Gaustad shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Kesler
Home
59.5% (2,929)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Gaustad
Kesler
P1
58.2%
56.5%
P2
56.4%
55.9%
P3
58.3%
56.1%
OT
66.0%
46.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 3 | 12:36 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 3 | 09:04 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 2 | 15:10 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 2 | 10:54 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 2 | 10:08 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 2 | 06:11 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 3 | 16:35 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 3 | 16:13 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 3 | 14:25 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 3 | 03:10 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |