Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Gaustad wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.9% vs O'Reilly 52.3% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 70.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 85.9%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 69.2%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Last 10: Gaustad 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Gaustad
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
6
2
Gaustad
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Gaustad
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (353)
53.6% (392)
+6.2%
Power Play
66.7% (15)
47.2% (36)
+19.5%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (81)
50.0% (28)
+8.0%
On power play, Gaustad has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Gaustad is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Gaustad shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Home
62.1% (195)
54.4% (237)
Away
57.9% (254)
51.1% (219)
By Period
Gaustad
O'Reilly
P1
59.4%
50.3%
P2
58.1%
51.4%
P3
61.3%
55.7%
OT
66.7%
71.4%
Final 5 min
57.0%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 19:17 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 18:46 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 3 | 03:02 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 12:35 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 08:00 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 03:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 05:43 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 30, 2013 | 1 | 05:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |