Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings). Gaustad wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 29-19 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 85.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 75.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
19
(48 meetings)
29
19
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Last 10: Gaustad 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
12
Gaustad
O'Reilly
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
12
4
Gaustad
O'Reilly
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
10
3
Gaustad
O'Reilly
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
56.2% (15,260)
+2.0%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
58.8% (3,445)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
51.4% (2,811)
+3.4%
On power play, Gaustad has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Gaustad shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Home
59.5% (2,929)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Gaustad
O'Reilly
P1
58.2%
55.6%
P2
56.4%
57.0%
P3
58.3%
55.1%
OT
66.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
57.8%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 14:31 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 00:55 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 09:06 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 11:43 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 11:23 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 04:50 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |