Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Gaustad wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 55.9% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 15-6 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 85.7%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 91.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 57.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
6
(21 meetings)
15
6
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Last 10: Gaustad 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
6
5
Gaustad
O'Reilly
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
3
0
Gaustad
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
6
1
Gaustad
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (821)
52.7% (900)
+5.0%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
55.6% (225)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
52.3% (260)
54.5% (209)
-2.2%
On even strength, Gaustad has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Gaustad is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Gaustad shoots left. O'Reilly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Home / Away
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Home
58.9% (577)
55.1% (693)
Away
53.7% (520)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Gaustad
O'Reilly
P1
53.1%
51.5%
P2
57.9%
54.7%
P3
57.8%
52.7%
OT
60.0%
69.7%
Final 5 min
60.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
56.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2015 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 09:06 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 11:43 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 11:23 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 04:50 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 30, 2015 | 3 | 03:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 30, 2015 | 1 | 13:21 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 3 | 17:44 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 3 | 17:33 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |