Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaustad wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 54.7% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 87.5%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 91.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 63.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Last 7: Gaustad 2-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Gaustad
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Gaustad
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
1
Gaustad
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (603)
56.9% (1,203)
-0.7%
Power Play
71.4% (21)
60.2% (329)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (148)
50.4% (280)
-1.1%
On power play, Gaustad has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Gaustad is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Gaustad shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Gaustad
O'Reilly
Home
55.5% (366)
58.6% (879)
Away
55.2% (406)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Gaustad
O'Reilly
P1
55.0%
55.6%
P2
56.9%
57.9%
P3
53.7%
55.7%
OT
62.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
55.1%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 14:31 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 00:55 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |