Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Gaustad wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Koivu 51.8% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 14-10 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Koivu 53.0%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 75.3%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 78.8%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 69.5%
69.5%
30.5%
Gaustad
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
10
(24 meetings)
14
10
Gaustad
Koivu
Last 10: Gaustad 6-4 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
2
4
Gaustad
Koivu
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
5
4
Gaustad
Koivu
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
7
2
Gaustad
Koivu
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
51.9% (3,221)
+6.3%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
59.3% (437)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
48.0% (764)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Gaustad shoots left. Koivu is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,153).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Koivu
Home
59.5% (2,929)
53.5% (2,281)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
50.1% (2,209)
By Period
Gaustad
Koivu
P1
58.2%
51.1%
P2
56.4%
52.6%
P3
58.3%
51.8%
OT
66.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
57.8%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2014 | 2 | 16:07 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 27, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 27, 2013 | 2 | 13:18 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 27, 2013 | 2 | 08:16 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 27, 2013 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 27, 2013 | 1 | 18:02 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 16, 2013 | 3 | 19:32 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 16, 2013 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 16, 2013 | 3 | 15:30 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 16, 2013 | 1 | 11:17 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 16, 2013 | 1 | 06:38 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 3 | 10:09 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 1 | 15:05 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 1 | 14:51 | Offensive | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 1 | 12:30 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 1 | 08:40 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 1 | 08:03 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |