Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). Gaustad wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Connolly 47.3% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 63.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 87.0%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 80.2%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Gaustad
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
12
(28 meetings)
16
12
Gaustad
Connolly
Last 10: Gaustad 4-6 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
4
Gaustad
Connolly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
9
4
Gaustad
Connolly
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
7
4
Gaustad
Connolly
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
47.4% (1,307)
+10.8%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
50.2% (251)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
41.9% (186)
+12.9%
On power play, Gaustad has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Gaustad shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Connolly
Home
59.5% (2,929)
48.5% (870)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Gaustad
Connolly
P1
58.2%
47.4%
P2
56.4%
47.7%
P3
58.3%
47.0%
OT
66.0%
37.8%
Final 5 min
57.8%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 13:34 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 09:44 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 06:59 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 3 | 00:59 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 2 | 03:18 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 1 | 19:14 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 1 | 03:34 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 13, 2012 | 1 | 00:48 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 3 | 02:48 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 1 | 17:55 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 1 | 06:40 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |