Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Gaustad wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 59.0% vs Smith 53.1% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaustad 50.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 74.0%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 68.7%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Gaustad
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Gaustad
Smith
Last 10: Gaustad 6-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
4
Gaustad
Smith
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
4
1
Gaustad
Smith
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
1
Gaustad
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (790)
58.1% (322)
+0.5%
Power Play
66.7% (93)
36.8% (19)
+29.9%
Penalty Kill
61.0% (269)
32.6% (46)
+28.4%
On power play, Gaustad has a +29.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Gaustad is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Gaustad shoots left. Smith is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Smith
Home
60.6% (554)
58.8% (204)
Away
58.9% (604)
48.4% (184)
By Period
Gaustad
Smith
P1
61.3%
52.9%
P2
55.5%
56.3%
P3
62.3%
51.9%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
58.8%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.8%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2011 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 3 | 08:58 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 3 | 02:24 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 3 | 00:48 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 2 | 02:00 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 1 | 18:16 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 1 | 08:13 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 3 | 13:27 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 17:52 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 12:00 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 25, 2011 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 25, 2011 | 2 | 10:07 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 8, 2010 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |