Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Gaustad wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Smith 50.6% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 23-14 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaustad 54.4%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 89.0%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 87.7%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
Gaustad
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
14
(37 meetings)
23
14
Gaustad
Smith
Last 10: Gaustad 6-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Gaustad
Smith
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
11
2
Gaustad
Smith
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
Gaustad
Smith
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
51.6% (5,265)
+6.6%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
51.2% (342)
+14.2%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
45.3% (985)
+9.5%
On power play, Gaustad has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Gaustad shoots left. Smith is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (4,205).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Smith
Home
59.5% (2,929)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Gaustad
Smith
P1
58.2%
49.9%
P2
56.4%
50.0%
P3
58.3%
51.9%
OT
66.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
57.8%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 12:09 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 06:14 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 1 | 00:42 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 11, 2014 | 3 | 06:28 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 11, 2014 | 2 | 01:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 11, 2014 | 1 | 06:17 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 3 | 11:04 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 2 | 12:28 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 1 | 11:48 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |