Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaustad wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 56.7% vs Smith 49.0% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaustad 67.0%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 91.0%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 88.7%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 86.3%
86.3%
13.7%
Gaustad
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Gaustad
Smith
Last 10: Gaustad 8-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
0
Gaustad
Smith
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
4
0
Gaustad
Smith
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Gaustad
Smith
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (854)
48.0% (761)
+9.8%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
70.4% (27)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (263)
49.5% (196)
+5.6%
On power play, Smith has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Gaustad is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (734).
Gaustad shoots left. Smith is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Smith
Home
61.3% (633)
49.9% (523)
Away
52.4% (517)
47.8% (467)
By Period
Gaustad
Smith
P1
57.9%
47.5%
P2
55.3%
50.4%
P3
58.3%
48.4%
OT
64.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
57.2%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2011 | 3 | 11:04 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 2 | 12:28 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 1 | 11:48 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 19:19 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 3 | 05:33 | Neutral | Zack Smith |