Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Cogliano wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 42.3% vs Stastny 53.0% (-11.5%)
H2H factor
Cogliano leads 17-14 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 90.8%
Defensive zone
Stastny 63.3%
Neutral zone
Stastny 72.9%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 75.3%
24.7%
75.3%
Cogliano
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
14
(31 meetings)
17
14
Cogliano
Stastny
Last 10: Cogliano 6-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
7
Cogliano
Stastny
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
6
1
Cogliano
Stastny
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cogliano
10
6
Cogliano
Stastny
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (810)
52.2% (1,107)
-10.6%
Power Play
43.9% (66)
61.0% (254)
-17.1%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (215)
46.4% (138)
-5.5%
On power play, Stastny has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Cogliano is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cogliano shoots left. Stastny is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,059).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Stastny
Home
43.7% (572)
52.5% (785)
Away
39.4% (536)
53.9% (739)
By Period
Cogliano
Stastny
P1
39.2%
51.3%
P2
37.4%
55.2%
P3
48.2%
52.6%
OT
38.9%
62.5%
Final 5 min
39.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
41.6%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 14:28 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 05:39 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 17:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 06:32 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 09:47 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 02:16 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 00:20 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 00:11 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 07:26 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 07:16 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 11:26 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 00:59 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |