Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Czarnik wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 45.8% vs Stastny 56.3% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 77.2%
Defensive zone
Czarnik 56.4%
Neutral zone
Stastny 55.8%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Czarnik
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Czarnik
Stastny
Last 10: Czarnik 5-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Czarnik
3
0
Czarnik
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Czarnik
1
0
Czarnik
Stastny
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
5
Czarnik
Stastny
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (156)
57.5% (412)
-13.9%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
60.0% (65)
-60.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
44.4% (9)
-11.1%
On power play, Stastny has a +60.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Czarnik is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (113).
Czarnik shoots right. Stastny is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Stastny
Home
46.1% (76)
58.3% (276)
Away
40.5% (84)
56.7% (210)
By Period
Czarnik
Stastny
P1
44.2%
63.7%
P2
41.2%
57.3%
P3
44.6%
50.4%
Final 5 min
37.1%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
43.1%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 05:05 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 13:05 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 02:46 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 04:40 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 04:18 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 19:38 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |