Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarnkrok on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Jarnkrok wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 51.0% vs Stastny 55.4% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 78.2%
Defensive zone
Stastny 73.9%
Neutral zone
Stastny 78.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 75.4%
24.6%
75.4%
Jarnkrok
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Jarnkrok
Stastny
Last 6: Jarnkrok 5-1 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Jarnkrok
Stastny
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
4
0
Jarnkrok
Stastny
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
1
0
Jarnkrok
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (326)
59.2% (370)
-7.4%
Power Play
54.4% (79)
40.9% (44)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (62)
51.7% (58)
-8.2%
On power play, Jarnkrok has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Jarnkrok is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Jarnkrok shoots right. Stastny is 58.6% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
Stastny
Home
53.0% (281)
57.7% (215)
Away
48.4% (186)
55.6% (257)
By Period
Jarnkrok
Stastny
P1
51.6%
57.7%
P2
50.6%
54.2%
P3
51.5%
57.7%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.2%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:20 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 18:45 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:43 | Neutral | Calle Jarnkrok |