Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs Stastny 57.3% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 74.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 76.9%
Neutral zone
Kelly 76.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Kelly
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kelly
Stastny
Last 5: Kelly 1-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
4
Kelly
Stastny
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
57.6% (959)
-7.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
60.8% (125)
-32.2%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (99)
58.1% (74)
-12.6%
On power play, Stastny has a +32.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Kelly is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Kelly shoots left. Stastny is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (761).
Home / Away
Kelly
Stastny
Home
53.9% (297)
55.9% (590)
Away
42.1% (242)
60.0% (568)
By Period
Kelly
Stastny
P1
45.4%
59.6%
P2
46.1%
59.0%
P3
54.3%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
58.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
65.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2015 | 3 | 04:08 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 13:43 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 09:09 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |