Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Brown wins 39.1% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 48.8% vs Stastny 54.0% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 79.8%
Defensive zone
Brown 70.9%
Neutral zone
Stastny 56.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Brown
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Brown
Stastny
Last 6: Brown 3-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Brown
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
3
0
Brown
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Brown
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (11)
52.5% (432)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
66.7% (6)
-22.9%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Brown is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (23).
Brown shoots right. Stastny is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Home / Away
Brown
Stastny
Home
37.5% (16)
58.3% (307)
Away
54.5% (11)
50.9% (285)
By Period
Brown
Stastny
P1
25.0%
57.4%
P2
61.5%
51.7%
P3
30.0%
54.5%
Final 5 min
55.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
26.0%▼
34.0%
44.4%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2021 | 3 | 00:07 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 07:03 | Defensive | Connor Brown |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 17:00 | Defensive | Connor Brown |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Connor Brown |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |