Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Spezza wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Stastny 57.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 17-5 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 83.0%
Defensive zone
Spezza 61.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 63.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
Spezza
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
17
(22 meetings)
5
17
Spezza
Stastny
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
6
Spezza
Stastny
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
7
Spezza
Stastny
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
4
Spezza
Stastny
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (998)
57.6% (959)
-4.6%
Power Play
58.5% (248)
60.8% (125)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
58.1% (74)
-8.1%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Spezza is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (919).
Spezza shoots right. Stastny is 62.0% vs right-shot opponents (397).
Home / Away
Spezza
Stastny
Home
56.4% (626)
55.9% (590)
Away
51.7% (636)
60.0% (568)
By Period
Spezza
Stastny
P1
56.9%
59.6%
P2
51.9%
59.0%
P3
53.9%
55.3%
OT
46.2%
58.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
65.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 13:15 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 19:49 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 17:49 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 05:51 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 3 | 08:38 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 3 | 05:30 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 2 | 03:28 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 1 | 15:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 3 | 09:40 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 2 | 17:03 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 2 | 07:06 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 08:38 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 1 | 16:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |