Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 52.5% vs Stastny 55.4% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 58.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 83.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 60.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Sturm
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Sturm
Stastny
Last 8: Sturm 2-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
4
Sturm
Stastny
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Sturm
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (480)
59.2% (370)
-5.2%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
40.9% (44)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (102)
51.7% (58)
-1.7%
On power play, Stastny has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Sturm shoots left. Stastny is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Sturm
Stastny
Home
54.0% (287)
57.7% (215)
Away
52.0% (302)
55.6% (257)
By Period
Sturm
Stastny
P1
53.5%
57.7%
P2
51.0%
54.2%
P3
55.1%
57.7%
OT
20.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 17:11 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 2 | 01:42 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |