Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Marchant on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stastny wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Marchant shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Marchant 48.3% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchant 50.7%
Defensive zone
Marchant 87.6%
Neutral zone
Marchant 69.8%
Result
Todd Marchant favored at 75.4%
24.6%
75.4%
Stastny
Marchant
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Stastny
Marchant
Last 9: Stastny 3-6 Marchant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
Marchant
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marchant
0
5
Stastny
Marchant
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
0
Stastny
Marchant
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Marchant
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
50.5% (368)
+4.1%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
28.6% (7)
+30.5%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
42.4% (158)
+10.5%
On power play, Stastny has a +30.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchant shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Stastny shoots left. Marchant is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
Stastny
Marchant
Home
55.9% (7,073)
50.3% (302)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
45.1% (246)
By Period
Stastny
Marchant
P1
56.3%
46.3%
P2
55.4%
49.7%
P3
53.5%
48.1%
OT
62.9%
44.4%
Final 5 min
55.7%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Marchant
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2011 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 2 | 05:52 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 1 | 09:07 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 1 | 01:35 | Offensive | Todd Marchant |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 3 | 17:35 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 3 | 03:57 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |