Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 62.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.6% vs Johnson 48.7% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 69.8%
Defensive zone
Stastny 90.4%
Neutral zone
Stastny 82.1%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Stastny
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stastny
Johnson
Last 5: Stastny 4-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Stastny
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
0
Stastny
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
0
Stastny
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (967)
48.5% (776)
+8.0%
Power Play
58.4% (125)
56.7% (157)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (128)
26.4% (53)
+24.4%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Stastny is 62.2% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Stastny shoots left. Johnson is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (648).
Home / Away
Stastny
Johnson
Home
56.8% (590)
48.8% (482)
Away
55.4% (630)
48.4% (504)
By Period
Stastny
Johnson
P1
59.7%
50.3%
P2
54.8%
48.5%
P3
53.8%
47.0%
OT
60.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
55.6%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.1%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2016 | 3 | 13:30 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 3 | 10:24 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 1 | 16:34 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 1 | 16:27 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |