Scouting Report
Ryan Strome holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Buchnevich wins 42.3% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 42.1% vs Strome 45.2% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 50.6%
Defensive zone
Strome 63.8%
Neutral zone
Strome 58.7%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Buchnevich
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Buchnevich
Strome
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
2
0
Buchnevich
Strome
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
0
1
Buchnevich
Strome
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
37.7% (154)
44.2% (267)
-6.5%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
37.0% (27)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
50.0% (4)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Buchnevich is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Buchnevich shoots left. Strome is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Strome
Home
37.4% (91)
42.0% (157)
Away
37.9% (87)
45.4% (141)
By Period
Buchnevich
Strome
P1
38.9%
40.0%
P2
31.5%
46.4%
P3
42.0%
44.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
33.3%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.6%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
43.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 17:16 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 14:44 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 07:32 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |