Pavel Buchnevich vs Wyatt Johnston
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Buchnevich wins 42.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 42.1% vs Johnston 48.5% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 65.7%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 50.9%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 53.1%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Buchnevich
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Buchnevich
Johnston
Last 5: Buchnevich 2-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Buchnevich
Johnston
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Buchnevich
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
37.7% (154)
47.8% (623)
-10.1%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
50.8% (63)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
51.4% (35)
-21.4%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Buchnevich is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Buchnevich shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Johnston
Home
37.4% (91)
47.6% (351)
Away
37.9% (87)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Buchnevich
Johnston
P1
38.9%
49.6%
P2
31.5%
47.3%
P3
42.0%
48.0%
OT
50.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
33.3%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.6%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |