Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Holland shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 52.6% vs Holland 47.1% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 88.2%
Defensive zone
Thornton 64.0%
Neutral zone
Thornton 76.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Thornton
Holland
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Thornton
Holland
Last 8: Thornton 6-2 Holland
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
Holland
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holland
0
1
Thornton
Holland
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Holland
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Holland
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (577)
45.7% (411)
+6.1%
Power Play
57.7% (168)
55.9% (34)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
45.0% (20)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, Holland has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holland shoots left. Thornton is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Thornton shoots left. Holland is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Home / Away
Thornton
Holland
Home
53.0% (379)
48.9% (219)
Away
52.9% (374)
44.3% (246)
By Period
Thornton
Holland
P1
53.3%
44.0%
P2
50.7%
51.7%
P3
54.3%
44.6%
OT
62.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Holland
38.0%▼
48.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2016 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 11:49 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 07:04 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 03:10 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Peter Holland |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 18:27 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |