Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Faksa on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Faksa shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Faksa 49.3% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 53.2%
Defensive zone
Faksa 84.3%
Neutral zone
Faksa 61.0%
Result
Radek Faksa favored at 67.9%
32.1%
67.9%
Pavelski
Faksa
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Pavelski
Faksa
Last 6: Pavelski 2-4 Faksa
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Faksa
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Faksa
1
2
Pavelski
Faksa
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Faksa
0
1
Pavelski
Faksa
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Faksa
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
49.6% (347)
+4.0%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
66.7% (6)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
43.8% (48)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Faksa shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Pavelski shoots right. Faksa is 50.3% vs right-shot opponents (159).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Faksa
Home
57.4% (470)
52.4% (231)
Away
52.6% (468)
44.7% (170)
By Period
Pavelski
Faksa
P1
53.4%
52.6%
P2
55.6%
43.1%
P3
55.5%
52.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 02:43 | Offensive | Radek Faksa |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 12:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 16:07 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |