Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.2% vs 53.1%). Look for Johnson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 52.7% vs Johnson 52.1% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 51.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 65.6%
Neutral zone
Johnson 50.8%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Stenlund
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Stenlund
Johnson
Last 5: Stenlund 2-3 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Johnson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
3
Stenlund
Johnson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (359)
55.4% (186)
+2.8%
Power Play
47.1% (17)
100.0% (3)
-52.9%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (150)
37.8% (37)
+4.2%
On power play, Johnson has a +52.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Stenlund is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Stenlund shoots right. Johnson is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Johnson
Home
53.6% (261)
51.6% (95)
Away
52.8% (265)
54.2% (131)
By Period
Stenlund
Johnson
P1
55.4%
46.7%
P2
51.5%
50.5%
P3
52.9%
58.9%
Final 5 min
52.0%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
53.2%
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 19:35 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 02:08 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:40 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 02:21 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |