Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Rakell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.0% vs Rakell 44.8% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 59.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 82.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 60.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
Stepan
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Stepan
Rakell
Last 7: Stepan 5-2 Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Rakell
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Rakell
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
Rakell
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (889)
43.7% (423)
+2.9%
Power Play
46.9% (113)
45.5% (22)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
33.3% (6)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. Stepan is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Stepan shoots right. Rakell is 43.2% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Stepan
Rakell
Home
47.7% (555)
46.1% (180)
Away
45.6% (548)
42.1% (271)
By Period
Stepan
Rakell
P1
46.4%
47.7%
P2
45.7%
37.6%
P3
48.5%
46.0%
OT
35.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
46.5%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.7%
Rakell
40.0%▲
37.0%
43.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2016 | 3 | 02:45 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 2 | 09:22 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 1 | 05:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |