Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nash on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 61.7% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 56.2% vs Nash 45.8% (+13.6%)
H2H factor
Nash leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nash 74.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 66.1%
Neutral zone
Kelly 50.4%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Kelly
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Kelly
Nash
Last 10: Kelly 5-5 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nash
1
2
Kelly
Nash
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Nash
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kelly
Nash
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (298)
44.8% (270)
+13.9%
Power Play
100.0% (8)
50.0% (10)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (67)
22.2% (9)
+27.1%
On power play, Kelly has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Kelly is 61.7% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Kelly shoots left. Nash is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Home / Away
Kelly
Nash
Home
60.0% (200)
44.2% (147)
Away
55.5% (173)
44.4% (142)
By Period
Kelly
Nash
P1
55.9%
39.1%
P2
58.4%
47.8%
P3
60.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
60.0%
42.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
57.9%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 06:17 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 19:36 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 01:59 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 01:54 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 08:36 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 1 | 05:02 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 1 | 01:39 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |