Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Nash 48.5% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 15-7 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 93.8%
Defensive zone
Thornton 69.9%
Neutral zone
Thornton 83.8%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Thornton
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
7
(22 meetings)
15
7
Thornton
Nash
Last 10: Thornton 7-3 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
10
1
Thornton
Nash
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
3
4
Thornton
Nash
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Thornton
Nash
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
48.7% (4,621)
+4.8%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
51.0% (249)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
44.9% (550)
+11.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Nash is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,747).
Home / Away
Thornton
Nash
Home
55.8% (4,271)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
Thornton
Nash
P1
55.0%
49.0%
P2
53.3%
47.9%
P3
54.4%
48.0%
OT
56.4%
68.4%
Final 5 min
53.7%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 11:24 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 07:24 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 19:28 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 15:10 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 12:15 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 08:38 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 17:28 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 3 | 16:51 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 3 | 16:46 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 14:13 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 16, 2014 | 3 | 19:30 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Nov 16, 2014 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Nov 16, 2014 | 1 | 19:44 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 1 | 16:29 | Neutral | Riley Nash |