Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nash on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nash 50.9% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 75.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 77.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 68.2%
31.8%
68.2%
Nash
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nash
O'Reilly
Last 5: Nash 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nash
3
1
Nash
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
1
0
Nash
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nash
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (752)
52.7% (900)
-2.6%
Power Play
53.8% (104)
55.6% (225)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
53.9% (102)
54.5% (209)
-0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nash is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Nash shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Nash
O'Reilly
Home
51.0% (502)
55.1% (693)
Away
50.9% (456)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Nash
O'Reilly
P1
49.4%
51.5%
P2
50.9%
54.7%
P3
52.1%
52.7%
OT
63.6%
69.7%
Final 5 min
48.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
50.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 19:48 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 2 | 18:45 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Riley Nash |