Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nash wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nash 46.2% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nash 77.2%
Defensive zone
Nash 77.3%
Neutral zone
Nash 77.4%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Nash
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Nash
O'Reilly
Last 7: Nash 1-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Nash
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Nash
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nash
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (306)
57.1% (1,367)
-11.0%
Power Play
16.7% (6)
59.4% (286)
-42.7%
Penalty Kill
38.1% (21)
52.5% (257)
-14.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +42.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nash is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Nash shoots right. O'Reilly is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (709).
Home / Away
Nash
O'Reilly
Home
46.5% (157)
59.2% (936)
Away
43.8% (176)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Nash
O'Reilly
P1
47.7%
57.3%
P2
39.8%
57.5%
P3
47.2%
55.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
45.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2018 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 3 | 12:36 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2 | 10:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2 | 06:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 05:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |