Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sheahan on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sheahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Sheahan 49.9% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Sheahan leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Sheahan 66.6%
Defensive zone
Sheahan 61.5%
Neutral zone
Sheahan 59.2%
Result
Riley Sheahan favored at 64.3%
35.7%
64.3%
Pavelski
Sheahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Pavelski
Sheahan
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Sheahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Pavelski
Sheahan
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sheahan
1
4
Pavelski
Sheahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Sheahan
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
49.7% (829)
+5.3%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
55.9% (102)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
38.5% (39)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sheahan shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Pavelski shoots right. Sheahan is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Sheahan
Home
58.1% (580)
50.1% (487)
Away
53.8% (567)
49.7% (483)
By Period
Pavelski
Sheahan
P1
53.4%
51.0%
P2
58.6%
52.9%
P3
56.4%
46.6%
OT
36.8%
38.9%
Final 5 min
57.4%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Sheahan
52.0%▲
49.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2015 | 3 | 13:02 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 2 | 07:50 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 1 | 17:32 | Offensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 10:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 03:10 | Offensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 1 | 06:50 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |