Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Chartier wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Chartier 51.5% vs Monahan 54.5% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 77.7%
Defensive zone
Chartier 51.5%
Neutral zone
Monahan 52.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Chartier
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Chartier
Monahan
Last 5: Chartier 3-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Chartier
1
0
Chartier
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chartier
1
0
Chartier
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Chartier
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Chartier
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (225)
57.1% (871)
-2.9%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
53.1% (262)
+21.9%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (67)
44.6% (139)
-1.3%
On power play, Chartier has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Chartier is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Chartier shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Chartier
Monahan
Home
49.5% (202)
55.3% (644)
Away
57.4% (94)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Chartier
Monahan
P1
51.6%
53.9%
P2
49.5%
55.3%
P3
54.6%
54.4%
Final 5 min
51.3%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Chartier
60.0%▲
50.5%
52.0%
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Rourke Chartier |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Rourke Chartier |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Rourke Chartier |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 19:45 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 08:40 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |