Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacLean wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacLean 44.7% vs Carpenter 48.2% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacLean 67.8%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 73.3%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 54.9%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
MacLean
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
MacLean
Carpenter
Last 8: MacLean 4-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacLean
2
0
MacLean
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
3
MacLean
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacLean
2
1
MacLean
Carpenter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacLean
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (238)
48.8% (404)
-6.4%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
100.0% (1)
-25.0%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
43.6% (101)
-23.6%
On power play, Carpenter has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. MacLean is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (90).
MacLean shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
MacLean
Carpenter
Home
41.4% (128)
48.9% (274)
Away
43.7% (119)
46.6% (232)
By Period
MacLean
Carpenter
P1
49.3%
51.9%
P2
41.6%
49.4%
P3
37.6%
41.8%
Final 5 min
41.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
42.5%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 19:23 | Offensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 16:25 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 11:49 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 16:44 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 09:51 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:59 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:17 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |