Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.5% vs Lafferty 47.6% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 56.4%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 57.1%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 50.8%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Carpenter
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
0
(7 meetings)
7
0
Carpenter
Lafferty
Last 7: Carpenter 7-0 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
0
Carpenter
Lafferty
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
3
0
Carpenter
Lafferty
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
3
0
Carpenter
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,027)
48.0% (1,413)
+1.6%
Power Play
41.5% (41)
45.7% (46)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (467)
43.5% (184)
+0.4%
On power play, Lafferty has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Carpenter is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (695).
Carpenter shoots right. Lafferty is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Lafferty
Home
51.2% (1,290)
47.3% (833)
Away
45.5% (1,245)
47.5% (810)
By Period
Carpenter
Lafferty
P1
49.6%
49.4%
P2
47.7%
43.1%
P3
48.0%
49.8%
OT
55.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 02:11 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 09:24 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:29 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 15:01 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |