Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Carpenter wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 49.1% vs Stamkos 55.8% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carpenter 55.5%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 67.3%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 67.8%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Carpenter
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Carpenter
Stamkos
Last 6: Carpenter 2-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carpenter
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Carpenter
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (81)
56.5% (246)
-4.6%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
61.4% (101)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
53.6% (69)
-10.7%
On power play, Stamkos has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Carpenter is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (35).
Carpenter shoots right. Stamkos is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (92).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Stamkos
Home
60.3% (68)
54.7% (170)
Away
34.5% (58)
58.9% (246)
By Period
Carpenter
Stamkos
P1
43.2%
60.9%
P2
55.8%
59.2%
P3
46.2%
50.4%
Final 5 min
40.6%
67.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2021 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 2 | 17:37 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 5, 2021 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 13, 2021 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |