Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.5% vs Bozak 53.4% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 58.2%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 80.1%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 67.2%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Carpenter
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Carpenter
Bozak
Last 9: Carpenter 3-6 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
Carpenter
Bozak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
1
Carpenter
Bozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
3
Carpenter
Bozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,027)
53.7% (9,596)
-4.1%
Power Play
41.5% (41)
55.2% (1,990)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (467)
48.0% (1,094)
-4.1%
On power play, Bozak has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Carpenter is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (695).
Carpenter shoots right. Bozak is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,312).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Bozak
Home
51.2% (1,290)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
45.5% (1,245)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Carpenter
Bozak
P1
49.6%
53.2%
P2
47.7%
52.8%
P3
48.0%
54.5%
OT
55.6%
52.9%
Final 5 min
49.6%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2019 | 2 | 18:14 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 2 | 01:25 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 1 | 01:54 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 16, 2018 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 1 | 01:09 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 3 | 05:07 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 1 | 10:33 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 1 | 05:12 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |